Sunday People 1.0
Andy Seybold has left the country. I got a chance to take him out for a few drinks (we were going sailing until the wind got up) and he’s a hellishly interesting fella - an independent guru who should be used to advise our government on spectrum, the realities of WiFi and Wimax. Thanks for coming down for Convergence, Andy. Nice to see you again.
The Xero IPO is covered again by Mark Clare at Valuecruncher. He comments that they are projecting breakeven at 8000 customers but breakeven is not planned for at least 3 years. Xero is particularly well known in the Wellington IT & accounting sectors but will need to invest in brand-building right across the SME space to better these conservative assumptions. I agree with Mark’s assessment that Xero would be an excellent trade buy for a multinational accounting software provider much like the 42 Below sale to Bacardi. 42 Below built a powerful stable of brands to reach first-to-mind status locally and a loyal consumer market in many countries. Geoff Ross is a very good marketer.
I also liked Lance Wiggs’ assessment on Xero in his second post on the matter. From the talk around town I am convinced the IPO will go very well for Rod and his team. But Lance, Mark et al - please keep the insightful analysis coming, through to the offer’s closure at the end of May. I wonder if Rowan Simpson is heading to Xero now?
With a first name like his, Victor Matfield was born to win. Congratulations to the Bulls on a thrilling contest against the Sharks. BTW, it’s time for Percy Montgomery to retire.
And congrats to Dean Barker and the Emirates Team New Zealand crew for being only one win away from the Louis Vuitton Cup final against Luna Rossa Challenge. I can’t see Chris Dickson coming back from here.
I hope you enjoyed my Sunday People column. If you do like, I’ll give it another crack next week.
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May 20th, 2007 at 7:37 pm
I’m not so sure the IPO will go swimmingly for a number of reasons details over on my blog. As many have mentioned - the offer is very fully priced and the business case is in a space that is not at all secure - the threat from traditional accounting software companies as well as open source ERP providers is substantial.
Watch this space…..
May 20th, 2007 at 7:41 pm
Oh, c’mon Ben. They’re only looking for NZ$15M …
May 21st, 2007 at 4:39 pm
I hope the end of this week shows that the IPO has gone well also. The analysis is good, and Ben, appreciate you’re playing your part in keeping the discussion challenging.
But I also agree he’s not pulling too much money of the market here, and if anyone can leverage that much money to create several times more its Rod and the crew no-ones saying its full proof, but he’s going into a space with dis-satisfied customers, its a awesome time for getting accounting on the web and is long awaited by the 10’s of thousands of businesses like mine who already use online billing, crm, project mgmt, planning… This is the essential business applicaton.
Yep he’ll have competition, but you always do, and history says almost everytime you disrupt a market you’ll get a backlash, first they say you’re wrong, then they start to acceot you;re not and try and compete, then they realise they’re a step or 2 behind and start discussing acquisition. It all comes down to who’s positioned the best and has the right thinking. Rod’s clearly leading the thinking here, MYOB and the likes will only follow suit in response to competition like Xero.
May 22nd, 2007 at 6:44 am
Good comments Tim - lets all watch this space…..